IREN's AI Pivot: From Bitcoin Mine to Hype Machine?
Okay, so IREN, right? They used to be all about Bitcoin mining, chasing that digital gold rush like everyone else. Now, suddenly, they're "leading builders of AI data center infrastructure." Tenfold EBITDA growth? Give me a break. It smells like someone just slapped an "AI" sticker on the same old operation.
And the stock's down 10%? Shocker.
The Numbers Game
Let's look at these projections: $200-$250 million annualized AI cloud revenue by December. That's what they say. But how much of that is real, locked-in contracts versus wishful thinking based on a few training workloads? Are they just renting out server space to the highest bidder for a quick buck, or are they building something sustainable? IREN's Q4 FY25 delivered normalized EPS of $0.21 versus $0.22 expected, following a stronger performance in Q2. Live: Complete Coverage of IREN Limited (IREN) Q1 Earnings.
Management is talking up the Prince George facility, bragging about 4,500 GB300 GPUs with liquid cooling and "enterprise-grade uptime." Sounds impressive, right? But are those GPUs actually churning out results, or are they just sitting there, waiting for someone to flip the switch? And what happens when the next, newer, shinier GPU comes along? Are they just going to be stuck with a bunch of obsolete hardware and a massive power bill?
This whole thing reminds me of that time I bought a "high-performance" gaming PC from some shady website. It looked great on paper, but it couldn't even run Minesweeper without overheating.
The Bitcoin Elephant in the Room
Let's be real, IREN's Bitcoin mining is still funding this whole AI charade. They're patting themselves on the back for operating at $0.035/kWh power costs. Good for them. But Bitcoin's volatile. What happens when the price tanks again? Will they be forced to sell off their AI assets to keep the lights on? Are they not just moving money from one pocket to the other?
And they’ve got $565 million in cash. Sounds like a lot, until you realize how much these AI data centers cost. They’re going to need more capital, and “favorable single-digit financing on GPU leases” isn’t going to cut it forever. So, dilution is on the horizon. Offcourse, they won't admit it. IREN: $9.7B Microsoft Catalyst, But I Remain Cautious Into Q1 On Dilution Risk (IREN)
I saw this tweet the other day where some crypto bro was bragging about how he made a killing on Bitcoin. I'm happy for him, I guess. But I can’t help but wonder how many people lost their shirts in the process. It feels like the same song and dance here.
The "Next Nvidia"? Seriously?
"Next Nvidia Stocks?" Oh, please. Every company that buys a few GPUs and throws around the term "AI" suddenly thinks they're the next big thing. It's the same hype cycle we see every damn year. Remember the metaverse? Remember blockchain? Remember 3D TVs?
This "Horizon 1" project in Childress… they're "weighing direct AI cloud operations against potential colocation models." Translation: they don't have a clue what they're doing. They're throwing spaghetti at the wall and hoping something sticks. What are they actually doing? Are they trying to be an AI cloud provider? Are they trying to be a colocation facility? Pick a lane, people!
So, What's the Real Story Here?
IREN is riding the AI wave, hoping to cash in before the whole thing crashes. They're good at PR, I'll give them that. But underneath all the buzzwords and projections, it feels like a house of cards waiting to collapse. I wouldn't touch this stock with a ten-foot pole.
